Posted November 12, 2009

NOTE: This page also covers storms that may impact the continental United States.

The following discussion is from meteorologist Rob Lightbrown of Crown Weather Services:
Ex-Ida/Dangerous Mid-Atlantic Coastal Storm:

A low pressure system, which is the combination of the remanants of Ida and a non-tropical low pressure system, was located about 50 miles east-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina early this morning. This low pressure system is strengthening and will continue to strengthen throughout the day today. This low pressure system will remain stalled near or just offshore of the coast of North Carolina today into tonight and then turn to the east and slowly track out into the open Atlantic during Friday and Saturday. Where this storm will rank in comparison to storms of the past is still unknown. With that said, this storm means business and the worst is yet to come. The worst of the storm from northeastern North Carolina northward to Maryland and Delaware will be today into tonight.

Rainfall Amounts/Coastal Flooding: Additional heavy rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia into southern Maryland and Delaware from today through Friday. Isolated rainfall totals of 8 inches are possible over eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia.

This heavy rainfall will cause flooding of rivers, creeks and small streams. In addition, flooding will also occur in poor drainage areas. You should monitor your local media outlets or your local National Weather Service office for possible flood warnings. If you live in a flood prone area, be prepared to take action if flooding occurs.

Coastal Flooding: All in all, a severe and near historic event is expected in terms of coastal flooding from northeastern North Carolina northward to Delaware and Maryland. Tide anomalies are expected to increase at least another foot and peak with the next 2 high tide cycles. Severe flooding is expected during the high tide cycles this afternoon and again on Friday morning. Tide anomalies will reach 4 to 5 feet above normal during these 2 high tide cycles. The high tide cycles this afternoon are expected between 430 and 630 pm EST. Friday morning's high tide cycles are expected between 430 and 630 am EST.

The winds will start to diminish later Friday and ocean water levels will gradually lower for the high tide cycle on Friday afternoon, however, minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected. Winds will continue to weaken and become more northwesterly on Saturday and conditions along the Mid-Atlantic coast should begin to improve and the threat of flooding will diminish.

Wind: Very strong and gusty northeast winds are expected from eastern North Carolina northward to Delaware and Maryland from today through the first half of Friday. These winds from the Maryland and Delaware beaches south across the Virginia Eastern Shore and Hampton Roads to the northern Outer Banks will average 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph today through tonight and into Friday morning. The winds will gradually diminish from Friday afternoon into Saturday. The combination of these very strong winds and the saturated ground will result in downed trees and cause widespread power outages.

Marine Interests: This is a very dangerous storm across the Mid-Atlantic coastal waters. Storm force winds are likely across the coastal and offshore waters of the Mid-Atlantic states today through Friday morning. Wind gusts of at least 50 knots (60 mph) are likely on the coastal and offshore waters; in fact, hurricane force wind gusts are not out of the question. Seas of 20 to 25 feet are expected today through tonight and into Friday morning.

Those of you in the Mid-Atlantic states from Maryland and Delaware south across eastern Virginia to eastern North Carolina, including Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Portsmouth and Ocean City, needs to take this storm very seriously!! Please consult your local media outlets or your local National Weather Service office for the latest information on this major and dangerous storm.

I have posted a webpage that has full coverage of this major and dangerous storm. Please visit it often for the latest information: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=1184

One final thing for everyone in the Atlantic Basin: It appears that Ida may be our last tropical system of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The long range computer guidance is not forecasting any tropical development for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

Current Satellite Images and the National Hurricane Center's current Storm Track Forecast(s):

http://www.jmbcommunications.com/sxm/pages/weather/current-st-martinst-maart.shtml

Current Hurricane / Tropical Storm Forecasts, Watches, and Warnings:

http://www.jmbcommunications.com/sxm/pages/weather/st-martinst-maarten-curre.shtml

St. Maarten Cyclone Forecasts: Visit the Meteolological Service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba at http://www.weather.an/cyclones/index.asp .

Crown Weather Services Hurricane Discussions (Recommended): Visit www.crownweather.com, click "Specialized Products," then click "Tropical Discussion." New information is posted daily there at about 6 a.m.

WARNING: If a hurricane approaches, always heed the warnings of local authorities. Never reply on any website during life and death emergencies.

An update to this page will be published tomorrow.

JMB Communications